Don't push the river!
by Hugh Hardy
In this column, I'd like to talk a bit about timing and the sale of real estate. During my career, and particularly during the last few years, I have made some interesting observations about the above mentioned topic. The more selling that I do, the more I see certain patterns emerging. Hopefully, you can use this information to your benefit should you decide to sell your home.
One of the things that I first began to notice was true, particularly in the "buyer's market" of the last few years (and let's face it, it's been a buyer's market since about 1990 and although there are signs of a turn-around, the buyer is still often favoured), is that you can't time your sale. What do I mean by this? What I mean is that you can't say: "well, we want to move in June, therefore we'll list our home in February." These days, sales happen at unpredictable times. I have often seen homes that have been on the market for more than 6 months that sell in December or July - strange months if you are trying to make predictions. So I guess I am saying that the new pattern that has arisen over the last few years is that there is no way to predict a most probable time when a particular house will sell. What I mean by this is two things:
- ...that during the red hot market of the late 1980s you could pretty much say that if a house sat around for more than 3 months there must be something wrong with it. This is no longer the case.
- ...that the market is less seasonal than it used to be. In addition to this inability to accurately predict how long it will take for a property to sell, our traditional seasons of activity have been out of whack in the last few years.
An excellent example of this occurred in the Spring of 1995 in which there were very few sales during the traditional Spring market. Most of the activity that year - at least in Ontario was in June and July. This was most unusual. So to sum up, there are these two ways in which real estate has become less predictable. Firstly, general predictions about the amount of time needed on the market have become more difficult. And secondly, seasonal predictions have become a hit and miss proposition.
Now I should reiterate that there are signs of a turn-around that is most evident in places like Toronto, and a little less evident in most parts of Simcoe County. Here, we are seeing fits and starts of increased activity combined with occasional slower months. But I think that the better the market becomes, the more we will once again be able to rely upon predictable seasonal activity and shorter and more predictable sale times.
I should say that over the last few years I have still been able to make some predictions about sale times for my sellers - it's just that they have been much more open ended - over a less specific time frame - than the predictions that I was able to make in the late 1980's. I think the way to look at it - and I tell my clients this - is ... as long as your property is being marketed properly and it is priced right, you just have to relax and sit back and wait. As they say: "you can't push the river". Basically, you follow the right marketing steps, price the property reasonably, and the property will sell when its time comes.
As a footnote, I should advise all you buyers out there that often the best time to buy is when the market is experiencing a slow month - to go against the normal instinct to buy when it's active and everyone else is buying. You will usually find that sellers are more receptive and will negotiate more when things are slow.
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